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  • alkg
    08-13 08:41 PM
    see the paragraph in bold letters.................

    Greenspan Sees Bottom
    In Housing, Criticizes Bailout
    August 14, 2008
    WASHINGTON -- Alan Greenspan usually surrounds his opinions with caveats and convoluted clauses. But ask his view of the government's response to problems confronting mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he offers one word: "Bad."
    In a conversation this week, the former Federal Reserve chairman also said he expects that U.S. house prices, a key factor in the outlook for the economy and financial markets, will begin to stabilize in the first half of next year.
    "Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009," he said in an interview. Tracing a jagged curve with his finger on a tabletop to underscore the difficulty in pinpointing the precise trough, he cautioned that even at a bottom, "prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond."
    A long-time student of housing markets, Mr. Greenspan now works out of a well-windowed, oval-shaped office that is evidence of his fascination with the housing market. His desk, couch, coffee table and conference table are strewn with print-outs of spreadsheets and multicolored charts of housing starts, foreclosures and population trends siphoned from government and trade association sources.
    An end to the decline in house prices, he explained, matters not only to American homeowners but is "a necessary condition for an end to the current global financial crisis" he said.
    "Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world's mortgage-backed securities. We won't really know the market value of the asset side of the banking system's balance sheet -- and hence banks' capital -- until then."
    At 82 years old, Mr. Greenspan remains sharp and his fascination with the workings of the economy undiminished. But his star no longer shines as brightly as it did when he retired from the Fed in January 2006.
    Mr. Greenspan has been criticized for contributing to today's woes by keeping interest rates too low too long and by regulating too lightly. He has been aggressively defending his record -- in interviews, in op-ed pieces and in a new chapter in his recent book, included in the paperback version to be published next month. Mr. Greenspan attributes the rise in house prices to a historically unusual period in which world markets pushed interest rates down and even sophisticated investors misjudged the risks they were taking.
    His views remain widely watched, however. Mr. Greenspan's housing forecast rests on two pillars of data. One is the supply of vacant, single-family homes for sale, both newly completed homes and existing homes owned by investors and lenders. He sees that "excess supply" -- roughly 800,000 units above normal -- diminishing soon. The other is a comparison of the current price of houses -- he prefers the quarterly S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index because it includes both urban and rural areas -- with the government's estimate of what it costs to rent a single-family house. As other economists do, Mr. Greenspan essentially seeks to gauge when it is rational to own a house and when it is rational to sell the house, invest the money elsewhere and rent an identical house next door.
    "It's the imbalance of supply and demand which causes prices to go down, but it's ultimately the valuation process of the use of the commodity...which tells you where the bottom is," Mr. Greenspan said, recalling his days trading copper a half century ago. "For example, the grain markets can have a huge excess of corn or wheat, but the price never goes to zero. It'll stabilize at some level of prices where people are willing to hold the excess inventory. We have little history, but the same thing is surely true in housing as well. We will get to the point where there will be willing holders of vacant single-family dwellings, and that will no longer act to depress the price level."
    The collapse in home prices, of course, is a major threat to the stability of Fannie and Freddie. At the Fed, Mr. Greenspan warned for years that the two mortgage giants' business model threatened the nation's financial stability. He acknowledges that a government backstop for the shareholder-owned, government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, was unavoidable. Not only are they crucial to the ailing mortgage market now, but the Fed-financed takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. also made government backing of Fannie and Freddie debt "inevitable," he said. "There's no credible argument for bailing out Bear Stearns and not the GSEs."
    His quarrel is with the approach the Bush administration sold to Congress. "They should have wiped out the shareholders, nationalized the institutions with legislation that they are to be reconstituted -- with necessary taxpayer support to make them financially viable -- as five or 10 individual privately held units," which the government would eventually auction off to private investors, he said.
    Instead, Congress granted Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson temporary authority to use an unlimited amount of taxpayer money to lend to or invest in the companies. In response to the Greenspan critique, Mr. Paulson's spokeswoman, Michele Davis, said, "This legislation accomplished two important goals -- providing confidence in the immediate term as these institutions play a critical role in weathering the housing correction, and putting in place a new regulator with all the authorities necessary to address systemic risk posed by the GSEs."
    But a similar critique has been raised by several other prominent observers. "If they are too big to fail, make them smaller," former Nixon Treasury Secretary George Shultz said. Some say the Paulson approach, even if the government never spends a nickel, entrenches current management and offers shareholders the upside if the government's reassurance allows the companies to weather the current storm. The Treasury hasn't said what conditions it would impose if it offers Fannie and Freddie taxpayer money.
    Fear that financial markets would react poorly if the U.S. government nationalized the companies and assumed their approximately $5 trillion debt is unfounded, Mr. Greenspan said. "The law that stipulates that GSEs are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is disbelieved. The market believes the government guarantee is there. Foreigners believe the guarantee is there. The only fiscal change is for someone to change the bookkeeping."
    In the past, to be sure, Mr. Greenspan's crystal ball has been cloudy. He didn't foresee the sharp national decline in home prices. Recently released transcripts of Fed meetings do record him warning in November 2002: "It's hard to escape the conclusion that at some point our extraordinary housing boom...cannot continue indefinitely into the future."
    Publicly, he was more reassuring. "While local economies may experience significant speculative price imbalances, a national severe price distortion seems most unlikely in the United States, given its size and diversity," he said in October 2004. Eight months later, he said if home prices did decline, that "likely would not have substantial macroeconomic implications." And in a speech in October 2006, nine months after leaving the Fed, he told an audience that, though housing prices were likely to be lower than the year before, "I think the worst of this may well be over." Housing prices, by his preferred gauge, have fallen nearly 19% since then. He says he was referring not to prices but to the downward drag on economic growth from weakening housing construction.
    Mr. Greenspan urges the government to avoid tax or other policies that increase the construction of new homes because that would delay the much-desired day when home prices find a bottom.

    He did offer one suggestion: "The most effective initiative, though politically difficult, would be a major expansion in quotas for skilled immigrants," he said. The only sustainable way to increase demand for vacant houses is to spur the formation of new households. Admitting more skilled immigrants, who tend to earn enough to buy homes, would accomplish that while paying other dividends to the U.S. economy.

    He estimates the number of new households in the U.S. currently is increasing at an annual rate of about 800,000, of whom about one third are immigrants. "Perhaps 150,000 of those are loosely classified as skilled," he said. "A double or tripling of this number would markedly accelerate the absorption of unsold housing inventory for sale -- and hence help stabilize prices."

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news





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  • reddysn
    06-16 09:27 AM
    My lawyer answered that one can work on OPT-EAD till one gets their I-485 EAD. So I guess you dont need to worry. Better check with ur lawyer also.


    My wife has changed her status from H4 to F1 in last
    year. She will be on F1-studies till July mid
    of this year. Few weeks back she got her EAD for her
    F1-OPT, which will start on Aug 15 of this year.

    As I am going to file AOS for her and also EAD, will
    she able to work on her OPT-EAD till she gets her
    I-485 EAD? Or She need to wait till she gets her
    I-485 EAD to work?

    As far as I know she need to wait till she gets her EAD of 485.
    I sent a mail to lawyer he did not respond yet.
    She is going to meet her international advisor on this sometime next week
    , but he does not seem to be an expert in this area.

    any ideas on this one?





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  • waitnwatch
    05-25 11:28 PM
    QGA, Senators and their staff do have my heartfelt thanks. I wonder how we can convey our thanks to all of them in some orderly fashion.

    A good old fashioned thank you card signed by some of our core would be the best way to go. I guess we could design a card with the IV logo on it.

    My two cents.





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  • HumJumboHathuJumbo
    10-08 03:25 PM
    How long will it to get green card for my parents.I am a US Citizen and filed I-130,I-485 in sept first week.they have finger printing scheduled for next week.Please share your experience if you have sponsored your parents too.


    Can anyone tell me how to start a thread please.sorry for posting in this thread.:)



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  • HOPE_GC_SOON
    05-04 10:30 AM
    Hi Immi2006.

    Please help me understanding this..

    Your statistics underneath::; 1) Is it NO. of Labour Petitions filed in those years and categories or 2) Are they Numbers of Labor and 140 approved pending cases for 485?:confused:

    Please enlighten me....

    thanks:)

    Folks,

    I was analysing the data based on posts in various immigration websites for India based filings. The data could be very well wrong too. (data for India folks as below).

    It appears on rough estimates :

    2005
    EB1 - 4000
    EB2 - 26000
    EB3 - 39000
    2004
    EB1 - 5500
    EB2 - 32000
    Eb3 - 36000





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  • chanduv23
    10-09 05:34 PM
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^



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  • gc_check
    02-22 08:07 PM
    http://competeamerica.org/news/media_coverage/2006_02/20060222_rno.html





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  • gc_check
    01-17 08:21 AM
    Refer to the below url for more details.
    http://www.irs.gov/individuals/article/0,,id=96287,00.html#apply

    Couple of years back, it was simple.. You just walk to the local IRS office and fill in a W-7 with proper ID, you are done. This has changed now. You can apply for a ITIN (W7) for H4, only when you file your tax returns. You complete the Form W-7 and file it along with your tax return, The W7 is processed first and then the taxes.



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  • gcnotfiledyet
    06-23 03:49 PM
    and how do you know that.. did Rush tell ya???

    his statments during conference tell mya





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  • kisana
    04-11 07:55 AM
    I have couple of questions

    1. There is question "Have you ever applied for Online Authorization form USCIS". My answer to that is yes. But in the "Date of application" what should I write. It should be the date on which EAD was issues from EAD card, or date which apparead in receipt notice.

    2. Also there is question "Please provide information concerning your eligibility status:", what should I provide in that text box.

    Please suggest.



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  • June05
    08-06 11:33 AM
    Congratulations!

    Quick question: Do you know what your online receive date was before the application got approved? This is the date the USCIS website states that they received your application on. Thx





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  • andy garcia
    07-18 10:08 AM
    Hello all, my lawyer is charging $600 for EAD (including uscis fees), I heard from one of my friends that EAD can be applied by yourself.

    Has anyone done that?
    Is it easy to do that?

    Here is:

    e-file 765(180 $)
    Send copy of 485 along with printout of receipt
    Wait for FP appointment
    Done(got cards 40 days later)


    I already did it for wife, son and myself.

    Saved about 1500$



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  • aug2007
    02-24 12:02 AM
    I'm in sixth year of H1. Also have EAD for more than 2 years but not used. Also, have valid AP (approved in Dec 2009). My I140 is approved more than a year back and I485 is pending since August 2007.

    I'm going to lose my job next week. So, I've sent I9 to switch from H1 to EAD.

    I'm looking for new job. But couldn't find any matching job so far as per my EB3 labor (PD oct 2004). But there are lot of full time positions that matches my EB3 labor. My employer is saying that he will cancel the I140, if I go to another company using AC21. What should I do to avoid any issue with my pending I485, if my current employer withdraws/cancells approved I140. Should I not inform my current employer about the job change till I file AC21? Or is it not a good idea to move to new employer as my current employer will cancel approved I140?

    I dont have the copy of I140 approval notice. Is this required in the future for rest of the GC Process?

    Can I travel out of the country without the job? Will it cause any issue at the Port of Entry, if I use AP to enter US (but currently doesn't have the job in hand)? Please advice.





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  • PDOCT05
    08-15 01:17 PM
    Sent on 07/02, reached on 07/03. Notice date is 08/13. Checks were encashed on 08/14. :):)

    140 was approved from Nebraska.

    Good luck to all of you. You will get it soon.

    Congrats.Can you share who signed your packet and what time it reached NSC? I am just curious whether i will have any luck..to get the RN in next couple of days.



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  • lp2007
    11-01 05:31 PM
    I think she should not have any problem with her future visits.

    My mother visits every year and spends 6 months with us since the last 6 yrs and never had an issue. She extended her stay one time.

    One of my friends mother was given a 3 month stamp one yr during b'coz she had extended her previous visit and stayed 3 months already in the same year. So the officer told her she could only stay for 6 months in any given yr, but later she extended and stayed longer and has visited US 2 times after that without any issues.

    USCIS takes between 6 weeks to <nn> weeks to process the request.

    One important thing you want to take care is, U need to send original i-94 card while requesting extension of stay and when u leave i-94 has to be returned at the airport. If your mom-in-law leaves before the application is approved, you want to be sure to save the extention documnets and mail the i-94 card back. And make sure to carry the extension approvals next time she travels so there is no confusion about unauthorized over stay. This happened with my mom. We received her approval after she had already left. So I mailed her approval to her prior to her next visit and she was fine.

    I hope this helps.





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  • bheemi123
    03-31 10:42 AM
    Yahoooooooooooooo......We (Me and my wife) received welcome notice today . Our 485 is approved on 25 th March.

    no updates online just received postal mail from USCIS today .

    I guess end of long wait , been in country from 2001 .

    I wish you all the best and hang in there if your PD is current you can expect the notice any time so keep checking your postal mail box .

    FYI - I dont know if my back ground check is clear or not , I guess it is .

    can you please let us know which service center you filed and what was your notice date in i485 recipt notice



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  • MYGC2008
    04-13 10:06 AM
    Now a days RFE is very common. I got RFE on sept 2008 even though I am EB2 2006.


    Thanks guys for all your responses, much appreciated. not sure whats the RFE about, still waiting for the document, little bit tensed ....





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  • nfinity
    09-14 03:11 PM
    Most of us have been severely impacted in life long decisions like
    - getting married
    - bringing spouse over
    - future of children
    - immigration to another country
    - opening a business
    - getting a raise
    - promotions

    being seen on tv should be the last thing that should come to mind.





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  • greenlight
    02-18 03:24 PM
    You guys deserve it after waiting for so long. The only way to check if the case has been adjudicated or not is to keep checking the LUDS, if it changes see what the status says. After being patient for so many years, if you are feeling a little impatient now call USCIS and check the status.


    I am fairly new to this community and not familiar with acronyms.
    Can someone kindly explain what LUD is ?
    My PD is now current as well and want to find out how to track my case.
    Thanks for everyone's collective support. :D





    twingy
    10-04 03:51 AM
    Is there and on going class action lawsuit? and if there is where can I get info to join. I filed for a k3 visa a year and 110 days ago. Till this day USCIS still wont approve my applications because they say that we are stuck in bacgkroud checks. I dont understand how people that field way after me already have their spouse here while I have been waiting for over a year and we still dont have the NOA2. What can I do, where can I joint o get help. Is there a class action going on for this?





    casinoroyale
    03-10 12:23 AM
    I don't understand in what cases consulate holds a person's passport. What if the applicant wants to return back home country instead of waiting in Canada?



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